[19980723]98-96E_预算盈余：债务偿还、减税或支出的经济影响——概述.pdf

This report presents an overview of CRS Report 98-346, which spells out the analysis in1greater detail.Congressional Research Service The Library of CongressCRS Report for CongressReceived through the CRS Web98-96 EUpdated July 23, 1998Budget Surpluses: Economic Effects of DebtRepayment, Tax Cuts, or Spending AnOverviewWilliam CoxSenior Specialist in Economic PolicyEconomics DivisionSummaryUpdated projections released on July 15 by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)indicate budget surpluses rising from $63 billion (0.9% of GDP) in FY1998 to morethan $100 billion (1.3% to 1.5% of GDP) from FY2002 through FY2005 and over $200billion (1.8% to 1.9%) from FY2006 through FY2008. Tax cuts or spending increases1now being discussed would erode these estimates. Surpluses would increase nationalsaving, reduce federal debt and release funds for use by private investors and otherlevels of government. Part would be transferred abroad, but domestic investment shouldrise by a sizeable fraction of the surpluses, and economic growth should quickenslightly. Transferring surpluses to Social Security or to related retirement accountscould have much the same effect. If projected surpluses occurred, t