[19980811]98-672_美国情报和印度核试验：吸取的教训.pdf

Congressional Research Service The Library of CongressCRS Report for CongressReceived through the CRS Web98-672 FAugust 11, 1998U.S. Intelligence and Indias Nuclear Tests:Lessons LearnedRichard A. Best, Jr.Specialist in National DefenseForeign Affairs and National Defense DivisionSummaryThe U.S. Intelligence Community did not have advance knowledge that Indiaintended to conduct nuclear tests beginning on May 11, 1998. Although intelligenceagencies cannot have foreknowledge of every significant development in world affairs,many observers (and senior intelligence officials) believe that, in view of the election ofan Indian government committed to “inducting” nuclear weapons, much greater attentionshould have been given to indications of impending nuclear tests. A commission headedby retired Admiral David Jeremiah reviewed the Intelligence Communitys performanceand recommended a number of measures to improve future performance. Some of themost important of these were addressed in the FY1997 Intelligence Authorization Act(P.L. 104-293) but implementing the legislation has been delayed as filling key positionshas been delayed. A persisting problem is the tendency of analysts to discount