[20000817]RS20656_国债的到期：它会增加联邦政府的经济规模吗？.pdf

Congressional Research Service The Library of CongressCRS Report for CongressReceived through the CRS WebOrder Code RS20656August 17, 2000The Retirement of the National Debt:Will It Increase the Economic Sizeof the Federal Government?Marc LabonteEconomistGovernment and Finance DivisionGail MakinenSpecialist in Economic PolicyGovernment and Finance DivisionSummaryMeasuring the economic size of the federal government can be an elusive goal.Over the past 40 years, for example, the total outlays of the federal government haveranged between 17% and 23.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Yet, an alternativemeasure based on the governments consumption of goods and services, suggests a muchsmaller economic size: for over the past 40 years, this measure has ranged between 6%and 13% of GDP. The disparity between these two measures is accounted for by outlaysthat transfer income from some Americans to other Americans. One major transfer isinterest on the national debt. The current and prospective budget surpluses suggest thatthe publicly held debt could be effectively retired with the coming decade. This willreduce (and eventually eliminate) future interest outlays. The government is then fre