[20010118]RS20608_美国长期增长率：它增加了吗？.pdf

Congressional Research Service ? The Library of CongressCRS Report for CongressReceived through the CRS WebOrder Code RS20608Updated January 18, 2001The U.S. Long-Term Growth Rate: Has it Increased?Craig K. ElwellSpecialist in MacroeconomicsGovernment and Finance DivisionSummaryThe pace of long-term growth is the bulwark of a rising living standard, and evensmall rises in this trend will generate large gains in material well-being from onegeneration to the next. The pace of economic growth also has important implications fortax revenues and outlays for pension funding. Since 1995 the U.S. economy hasexperienced a strong acceleration of economic growth, propelled by a resurgence ofproductivity growth. Is this the beginning of a new era for economic growth? Has thecomputer and communications revolution begun to pay productivity dividends?Economic theory and evidence do not suggest that long-term growth is likely to showa great degree of variability, although some increase is possible. Detailed analysis ofrecent U.S. productivity growth gives an uncertain picture of whether current growthshows the degree of dispersion across sectors of the economy to propel the economy ata far faster