[20020205]RS21139_失业与经济增长.pdf

1 See: CRS Report RL30391, Inflation and Unemployment: What is the Connection?, by BrianW. Cashell.Congressional Research Service The Library of CongressCRS Report for CongressReceived through the CRS WebOrder Code RS21139February 5, 2002Unemployment and Economic GrowthBrian W. CashellSpecialist in Quantitative EconomicsGovernment and Finance DivisionSummaryEconomic growth and the unemployment rate are very closely related. Theconnection is such a stable one that it is often referred to as “Okuns law,” after aneconomist who pointed it out. In the long run, economic growth is a function ofincreases in labor and in productivity. For economic growth to accommodate growth inthe labor force without leading to a rise in the unemployment rate, it must at least equalthe combined growth rates of labor and productivity. Over the last 50 years, the rate ofeconomic growth required to keep the unemployment rate from rising has been, onaverage, close to 3.5%. Over relatively shorter periods of time, the rate may havefluctuated due to shifts in either labor force or productivity growth. Although laborforce growth has slowed over time, the trend rate of productivity growth may haveaccelerated in t