[20021114]RS20885_老年福利和联邦预算：短期和长期预测.pdf

Congressional Research Service! !The Library of CongressCRS Report for CongressReceived through the CRS WebOrder Code RS20885Updated November 14, 2002Benefits for the Aged and the Federal Budget:Short- and Long-Term ProjectionsJames R. StoreySpecialist in Social LegislationDomestic Social Policy DivisionSummaryAs the 108th Congress addresses short-term budget decisions, it may also want toconsider the long-run impacts of those decisions and the major shifts in budgetcomposition that are underway. Mandatory entitlements, particularly benefits for theaged, are projected to become even more dominant in federal budget policy. Spendingon the aged under current policy as projected by the Congressional Budget Office willaccount for 43% of all federal outlays by 2010. A Congressional Research Serviceanalysis of the Presidents FY2003 budget found that one-half of all federal outlays willbenefit the aged, disabled, and survivors of deceased workers. While the retirement ofthe Baby Boom generation will accelerate this trend, population aging is a long-termphenomenon that will outlast the Baby Boomers. By 2075, continuation of currentpolicy may find these programs accounting for 18% of gross d