[20040330]RS21787_阿拉斯加天然气管道的对外贸易效应.pdf

1 For a full description of the structure and use of NEMS, see: Energy InformationAdministration, “The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003.” March 2003.pp.1-73.Congressional Research Service The Library of CongressCRS Report for CongressReceived through the CRS WebOrder Code RS21787March 30, 2004Foreign Trade Effects of an Alaskan NaturalGas Pipelinename redactedAnalyst in Energy Economics and PolicyResources, Science, and IndustrySummaryThe Energy Information Administration (EIA), in the Annual Energy Outlook 2004(AEO), projects increased demand for imported natural gas through 2025. The AEOreference case forecast assumes a natural gas pipeline will begin delivering Alaskannatural gas to the lower 48 state consuming markets in 2018. H.R. 6, the omnibusenergy bill, contains provisions to enhance the future supply of natural gas throughconstruction of a pipeline. This report examines the effects of an Alaska natural gas pipeline on the U.S.current account balance. The EIA finds that if the pipeline is not constructed, naturalgas prices will increase, markets will adjust, and imports of natural gas will increase.However, due to price induced market adjustments, the incr