[20041026]RS21960_高生产率增长与就业增长是否相容？.pdf

1 For more information, see CRS Report RL32047, The “Jobless Recovery” From the 2001Recession, by Marc Labonte and Linda Levine.2 For more information, see CRS Report RL31428, Productivity Growth: Recent Trends andProspects, by Brian Cashell.Congressional Research Service The Library of CongressCRS Report for CongressReceived through the CRS WebOrder Code RS21960October 26, 2004Is High Productivity Growth Compatible WithEmployment Growth?Marc LabonteAnalyst in MacroeconomicsGovernment and Finance DivisionSummaryThere is a popular perception that the recent sluggishness in employment growthis caused by the acceleration in productivity growth. Annual labor productivity growthhas increased from 1.4% from 1974 to 1995 to 2.5% from 1996 to 2001 and to 4.2%from 2002 to the present. Neither economic theory nor empirical evidence supports thisperception there has been virtually no correlation between productivity growth andemployment growth since 1948. Higher productivity growth does change ourperceptions of what comprises a strong economic recovery, however. With higherproductivity growth, what was formerly an economic growth rate consistent with risingemployment is now symptomatic of ina