[20050823]RS22228_菲德尔·卡斯特罗之后的古巴：美国政策问题.pdf

Congressional Research Service The Library of CongressCRS Report for CongressReceived through the CRS WebOrder Code RS22228August 23, 2005Cuba after Fidel Castro: Issues for U.S. PolicyMark P. SullivanSpecialist in Latin American AffairsForeign Affairs, Defense, and Trade DivisionSummaryOver the past few years, there has been increased speculation about Cubas futurewithout Fidel Castro, who has ruled the country since the 1959 Cuban revolution.Castro turned 79 on August 13, 2005, and while over the years news of his imminentdemise proved premature, his advanced age makes the date of his departure from thepolitical scene all the closer. The U.S. government has begun to plan in various waysfor Cuba without Fidel at the helm. This has included examining transition issues andappointing a State Department Cuba Transition Coordinator. Some observers, however,question the adequacy of the transition planning, in part because it does not recognizethe likelihood of a successor communist government headed by Fidels brother Ral.This report first examines various transition scenarios for Cuba after Fidel Castro. Itthen examines implications of the transition for U.S. policy, including U.S. gove