[20060224]RS22045_备选假设下的基线预算预测.pdf

1 For the latest baseline projection, see CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years2007 to 2016, Jan. 2006.Congressional Research Service The Library of CongressCRS Report for CongressReceived through the CRS WebOrder Code RS22045Updated February 24, 2006Baseline Budget Projections UnderAlternative Assumptions Gregg A. EsenweinSpecialist in Public FinanceGovernment and Finance DivisionMarc LabonteAnalyst in MacroeconomicsGovernment and Finance DivisionSummaryThe Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates a baseline budget based onsimple rules prescribed by law. Statute requires CBO to project a baseline of revenuesand outlays under current law over the next 10 years. Arguably, a “better guess” of theprobable path of the federal budget under current policy might be achieved by modifyingthree assumptions in the CBO baseline. First, that discretionary spending will remainconstant as a share of GDP rather than growing at the rate of inflation. Second, thatrecent tax reductions will be extended rather than allowed to expire. Third, that thealternative minimum tax (AMT) relief will be extended rather than allowing the AMTto “take back” the reductions in regular income tax. Modi