[20080123]RS22793_什么是衰退谁来决定何时开始他们什么时候决定？.pdf

Order Code RS22793January 23, 2008What is a Recession, Who Decides When ItStarts, and When Do They Decide?Brian W. CashellSpecialist in Macroeconomic PolicyGovernment and Finance DivisionSummaryA recession is one of several discrete phases in the overall business cycle. The termmay often be used loosely to describe an economy that is slowing down or characterizedby weakness in at least one major sector like the housing market. When used byeconomists, “recession” means a significant decline in overall economic activity thatlasts more than a few months. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)business cycle dating committee is the generally recognized arbiter of the dates of thebeginnings and ends of recessions. As with all statistics, it takes some time to compilethe data, which means they are only available after the events they describe. Moreover,because it takes time to discern changes in trends given the usual month-to-monthvolatility in economic indicators, and because the data are subject to revision, it takessome time before the dating committee can agree that a recession began at a certain date.It can be a year or more after the fact that the dating committee announce