[20080505]RS22371_利率模式：这是否预示着即将到来的衰退？.pdf

1 For example, the NBER announced in July 1983 that the United States had reached a cyclicaltrough in November 1982; it announced in April 1991 that a cyclical peak had been reached inJuly 1990; it did not announce the March 1991 trough until December 1992; and it announcedin late November 2001 that the longest economic expansion in American history peaked in March2001.Order Code RS22371Updated May 5, 2008The Pattern of Interest Rates: Does It Signal an Impending Recession?Marc Labonte and Gail MakinenGovernment and Finance DivisionSummaryThe cyclical behavior of the economy is of great interest to Congress, yet the onsetof an economic downturn is seldom recognized promptly. Recognition can take morethan a year after the fact and is based on the accumulation of considerable supportivedata. Therefore, policymakers frequently search for reliable recession predictors. Thebehavior of interest rates may provide advanced warning of an impending downturn.Following six of the past seven episodes in which the federal funds rate the interestrate used to conduct monetary policy rose above the level of interest rates on allmaturities of Treasury securities, the United States experienced an eco