[20150514]IN10275_社会保障财务预测的不确定性.pdf

CRS InsightsUncertainty in Financial Projections of Social SecurityNoah P. Meyerson, Analyst in Income Security (nmeyersoncrs.loc.gov, 7-4681)May 14, 2015 (IN10275)The report of the Social Security Board of Trustees contains the federal governments official financial projections for the Social Security program. Section 201(c) of the Social Security Act mandates the annual report and names the trustees: the commissioner of Social Security, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of Labor, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, and two members of the public. The trustees specify the assumptions about future demographic and economic trends used in the forecast and have final authority over the projections and the wording of the report. However, the Office of the Chief Actuary (OACT) of the Social Security Administration (SSA) advises the trustees on the assumptions, drafts report language, and develops and runs the computer models that produce the forecasts.The financial outlook for Social Security has been the subject of much analysis and debate. Recently, three researchersGary King, Konstantin Kashin, and Samir Sonejicriticized OACT in two academic papers and in statements