[20150616]IN10292_2015年6月选举后的土耳其：埃尔多安和正义与发展党没有达到目标.pdf

CRS InsightsTurkey After June 2015 Elections: Erdogan and the AKP Fall ShortJim Zanotti, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs (jzanotticrs.loc.gov, 7-1441)June 16, 2015 (IN10292)Although Turkeys Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) won the most seats in parliamentary elections held on June 7, 2015, it lost the governing majority it had enjoyed since 2002probably ending President Recep Tayyip Erdogans (air-doe-wan) hopes for constitutional change to increase his formal powers. Many domestic and international observers have heralded the election results as a long overdue check on what they characterize as Erdogans authoritarian and possibly Islamist ambitions.Figure 1. Turkish Parliamentary Election Results, June 2015(Unofficial)Sources: Anadolu Agency and BBCOverview and AssessmentThe AKP fell short of a parliamentary majority, let alone the supermajority that would have enabled it to hold a popular referendum on a presidential system configured to increase the overall power of the office and its current occupant (Erdogan). Some of the seats the AKP had counted on went to the Peoples Democratic Party (HDP)a party rooted in the Kurdish nationalist movementwhen the HDP