[20150929]IN10366_新兴市场：增长放缓是暂时的吗？.pdf

CRS INSIGHTEmerging Markets: Is Slower Growth Temporary?September 29, 2015 (IN10366) | |James K. Jackson, Specialist in International Trade and Finance (jjacksoncrs.loc.gov, 7-7751)Emerging market (EM) countries as a group are facing growing vulnerabilities to their economies due to declining global trade, depreciating currencies, sharply lower commodity prices, volatile equity markets, and deeper economic reforms. In addition, anticipated changes in U.S. monetary policy and differences in economic performance and monetary policies between the United States and other developed economies are creating uncertainties for EM economies.Table 1. Annual GDP Rates of Growth, Real and Projected 201420152016World Output3.43.33.7Advanced Economies1.82.12.3United States2.42.52.8Euro Area0.81.51.6Japan-0.10.81.3United Kingdom2.92.42.1Canada2.41.52.3Emerging Markets4.64.25.0Russia0.6-3.41.8China7.46.86.3India7.37.57.5Latin America1.30.52.1Brazil0.1-1.52.3Mexico2.12.43.0Middle East2.72.6NASource: International Monetary Fund, August 2015.For some EM countries, the current slowdown in economic growth likely is temporary, reflecting cyclical fluctuations, but for others it could mark a structural tra