[20160413]IF10388_油价上涨？.pdf

https:/crsreports.congress.gov April 13, 2016Higher Oil Prices?On January 11, 2016, the price of Brent crude oil, the reference grade on the world oil market, fell to $28.82 per barrel, a decline of over 45% in about three months. On April 12, 2016, the price of Brent had recovered to $44.68 per barrel, and some voices in the oil industry began suggesting that the long period of low, and volatile, oil prices, which began in June of 2014, might be coming to an end. Figure 1. Spot Price of Brent Crude Oil, 2010-2016 Source: Energy Information Administration, oil spot price data. Graphic by CRS. Although oil prices in excess of $100 per barrel appear unlikely, prices falling below $30 per barrel again are also viewed as unlikely. Because the price of oil is, in effect, a barometer, reflecting the balance between demand and supply in the oil market, the question of the level of prices becomes one of the potential balancing of demand and supply. Over the past two years, supply has chronically exceeded demand, resulting in increasing storage levels, a market supply glut, and lower prices. Whether the oil market can achieve balance is partly dependent on the time frame considered, short