[20181128]IF11031_全球背景下的美国经济.pdf

https:/crsreports.congress.gov November 28, 2018The U.S. Economy in a Global ContextCongress faces challenges in formulating policies to foster economic growth. The imbalance between federal spending and revenues will continue and grow in the long run if current policies are continued. This imbalance will lead to unsustainable growth in the federal debt. Nevertheless, deficit reduction that is too large can temporarily slow economic growth. Near Term Outlook The economy has recovered from the 2007-2009 recession with a historically low level of unemployment (3.7% in October 2018). The labor force participation rate of 62.8% is at its trend level. It has declined over time largely due to the aging of the population. The economy continues on a growth path at an average rate of 2.2% from 2010 through 2017. Growth in the first and second quarters of 2018 was 2.2% and 4.5 % with a preliminary estimate of 3.5% for the third quarter. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates a growth rate of 3.1% in 2018, with the higher growth rate reflecting the increase in government spending, reductions in taxes, and faster growth in investment. The Blue Chip Forecast consensus is similar with