[20190412]IN11092_全球经济：经济增长是否会放缓？.pdf

CRS INSIGHT Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress INSIGHTINSIGHTi i The Global Economy: Is Slower Growth Ahead? James K. Jackson Specialist in International Trade and Finance Andres B. Schwarzenberg Analyst in International Trade and Finance Updated April 12, 2019 Recent economic forecasts project a mild slowing in global economic growth in 2019, centered mostly in developed economies and Asia, according the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), as indicated in Table 1. The IMF April 2019 forecast of global economic growth in 2019 and 2020 projects a growth rate of 3.3% and 3.6%, respectively, down about 0.2 percentage points (pp) from previous forecasts. It also forecasts global trade growth of about 3.4%, and a fall in energy prices of about 13%. IMF April 2019 forecast for global economic growth rates were lower by an additional 0.2 pp from earlier forecasts due to a slowing in the global economy during the second half of 2018. The OECD is forecasting that global growth will slow to 3.3% in 2019 and 3.4% in 2020, also a decline of about 0.2 pp from previous projections. The OECD and IMF argue that vario