[20190619]IF11081_2019年缅甸的和平前景.pdf

https:/crsreports.congress.gov Updated June 19, 2019Burmas Prospects for Peace in 2019The announcement on December 21, 2018, by Burmas Commander-in-Chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, of a unilateral ceasefire in eastern (but not western) Burma has raised many questions about prospects for ending the nations long-standing civil war. Some observers viewed the announcement as a possible breakthrough for the stalled “peace process” backed by Min Aung Hlaing and State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi. Others saw it as a ruse designed to promote discord among Burmas various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), continue the militarys campaign in western Burma, and possibly set the stage for Min Aung Hlaings political ambitions to be selected as Burmas next President in 2020. Min Aung Hlaings decision on April 30, 2019, to extend the ceasefire for an additional two months has done little to resolve the outstanding issues that are preventing an end to Burmas decades-old civil war. Some of the EAOs that previously were involved in the “peace process” have suspended their participation; other EAOs are preparing for an escalation in fighting once the ceasefire is over. Both the Obama and Trump Ad