[20200417]IN11317_2019冠状病毒疾病与短期联邦赤字.pdf

CRS INSIGHT Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress INSIGHTINSIGHTi i COVID-19 and Short-Run Federal Deficits Grant A. Driessen Analyst in Public Finance Updated April 17, 2020 The COVID-19 outbreak and ensuing economic shock may have major effects on future federal budget deficits (the amounts by which annual outlays exceed annual revenues). The latest federal budget baselines from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) use economic forecasts produced before the COVID-19 outbreak; baselines with updated forecasts would typically not be expected for several months, though agencies could decide to provide updates sooner. This Insight briefly discusses the effects that recent economic and legislative developments may have on short-term federal budget outcomes. Recent Projections Budget baseline forecasts projected federal deficits to be well above their historical average before accounting for the ongoing economic decline. CBOs March 2020 baseline included deficit projections of $1,073 billion or 4.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in FY2020 and $1,002 billion or 4.3% of GDP in FY2021. Those deficit levels are higher than the average