[20200901]IN11493_全球经济增长预测：2019冠状病毒疾病的影响.pdf

CRS INSIGHT Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress INSIGHTINSIGHTi i Global Economic Growth Forecasts: Impact of COVID-19 September 1, 2020 Overview The unprecedented Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic and policy responses have compounded the challenges facing forecasters attempting to estimate the pandemics global economic impact and challenged policymakers to find the appropriate policy response. Some forecasts indicate the pandemic is negatively affecting economic growth beyond anything experienced in decades. Such estimates see global economic growth being trimmed by 3.0% to 6.0% in 2020, with a partial recovery in 2021, assuming the current crisis can be mitigated and there is not a second wave of infections. Global trade could fall by 18%, depending on the depth and extent of the global downturn, exacting an especially heavy economic toll on developed economies and trade-dependent developing and emerging economies. At present the global economic recovery seems to be caught between countries experiencing a nascent but building recovery and those reimposing quarantines and lockdowns in response to resurgence in diagnosed cases. Uncertainty about the length and