[20210406]IN11644_2021高通胀是一种风险吗？.pdf

CRS INSIGHT Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress INSIGHTINSIGHTi i Is High Inflation a Risk in 2021? April 6, 2021 Assuming public health continues to improve, many economists project rapid economic growth in 2021. The unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus in response to the COVID-19 pandemic is also expected to continue in 2021. Some observers have questioned whether the combination of stimulus and rapid growth will result in rising prices. Historical Trends in Inflation The economy experienced persistently high inflation in the 1970s and early 1980s, last reaching double-digits in 1981 (see Figure 1). Most economists believe this high inflation was caused by overly expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, along with significant increases in energy prices. Additionally, as expectations of higher inflation became incorporated into consumer and business decisions, these expectations contributed to actual increases in inflation. The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised short-term interest rates significantly in the early 1980s, which successfully brought inflation down quickly, though at the cost of a recession. Congressional Research Service https:/crsreports.congress.gov