[20220112]IF11878_中东和北非的气候与安全.pdf

https:/crsreports.congress.gov Updated January 12, 2022Climate and Security in the Middle East and North AfricaThe Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is among the worlds most water-stressed and vulnerable to climate change impacts. Policymakers concerns about a changing MENA climate include not only physical and economic impacts but also the potential implications for political stability and security in a volatile region. A Dry Region Under Stress Projections of various effects of climate change on the largely arid and semi-arid MENA region are available, although regional analyses are often constrained by limited data for MENA and downscaling from global models. Given MENAs geographic spanfrom Morocco to Iranand topographic variation (e.g., mountains, deserts, and deltas), local effects may differ from regional trends. Heat. Temperatures in the MENA region have increased for decades and are projected to continue increasing through the end of the century. Figure 1 shows one projection of hottest day temperature increases by 2040. Some research suggests intensification of warm-season heat extremes in the region (e.g., Zittis et al. in Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2021).