战争没有胜利战争没有失败 俄罗斯入侵乌克兰100天后的军事形势

CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIESwww.osw.waw.plOSW CommentaryThe views expressed by the authors of the papers do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Polish authorities.EDITORS:Adam Eberhardt,Wojciech Konoczuk,Katarzyna Kazimierska,Szymon Sztyk,Magorzata ZarbskaTRANSLATION:Jim ToddDTP:Wojciech MakowskiCentre for Eastern Studiesul.Koszykowa 6a,00-564 Warsaw,Polandtel.:(+48)22 525 80 00,infoosw.waw.pl www.osw.waw.plAwar not won,awar not lost.The military situation after 100 days of the Russian aggression against UkraineAndrzej WilkOne hundred days of Russian aggression against Ukraine has still not answered the basic ques-tion:who will win?The first phase of the clash amanoeuvre warfare until the end of March,in which the aggressor had broadly defined operational goals ended in failure for Russia,and resulted in it withdrawing from one of the two main theatres of operations and reducing its aspirations in other directions.The trench warfare phase,which has lasted since the turn of April,has not led to abreakthrough,but the extended actions have exhausted the Ukrain-ian army to anextent that the enemy has been able to make slow but consistent progress in achieving its assumed minimum goal: