用鲜血讨价还价 俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争

By Kathryn Hedgecock|6 April 2022&Robert PersonKey Issues Bargaining models of warfare see combat as a continuation of negotiations,whereby adversaries exchange information about each others capabilities and resolve until expectations converge on a settlement.Russia and Ukraines leaders continue to believe that their side can prevail in the war and is not yet close to defeat,meaning that the conflict is likely to drag on for the foreseeable future.The all-or-nothing stakes of Russias maximalist demands and Ukraines survival as a sovereign democratic nation make it especially difficult for both sides to agree to a negotiated settlement.Even if Russia and Ukraine sign a ceasefire agreement,commitment problems mean that Putin is unlikely to a negotiated settlement as long as his political objectives in Ukraine remain unfulfilled.Common wisdom would say that diplomacy died the moment Russian tanks rolled across the border with Ukraine and Moscows bombs began to fall on cities across Ukraine.But an important strand of international relations theory views war itself as part of a longer bargaining process,echoing Clausewitzs famous saying about war as the“continuation of politics by other