利用情报影响俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争

POLICY BRIEFGerman Council on Foreign RelationsUsing Information to Influence the Russian War in UkraineFuture scenarios for the war in Ukraine explore how the use of information could affect the cohesion of Russia and of the West in the medium term.The four possible variations of Russian/Western cohesion high/high,low/high,high/low,low/low indicate how each side would define the outcome of the conflict.These possi-ble outcomes,in turn,generate lessons about how a liberal West might use information to tip the scales on an autocratic Russia.Western states are pluralistic,making their cohesion a problem in a crisis.Various constituents debate different solutions when decisive action is required.But certain forms of action are pos-sible on which a resolute information campaign can be based.Germany and a coalition of like-minded states should start detailing a recovery plan “Ukrainian Dawn”to show both Ukraine and Russias elite that they are willing to support Ukrai-nian state-building not only militarily but also economically for the long haul.Western governments need to signal to their citizens that they will cover the increased costs of energy and living that have arisen during Russ