如果俄罗斯利用移民作为武器欧洲人应该以牙还牙

POLICY BRIEFGerman Council on Foreign RelationsIf Russia Uses Migration as a Weapon,Europeans Should Respond in Kind Around 442,000 people have so far fled Ukraine not just to the EU,but also to neighbors like Moldova.This is a humanitarian issue,and should not be conflated with“migrant instrumentalization”(MI),whereby a state pushes people across a border to coerce the EU to change position.Yet Russia is likely to employ MI in this way,espe-cially if it moves deep into Western Ukraine.Drawing on an in-depth study,we show how the EU can meet this specific threat.We identified four profiles of actors which might seek to use MI against the EU:(1)strong states like Russia,(2)proxy states like Belarus,(3)weak states like Ukraine,and(4)non-state actors such as militias or smugglers in places like Libya.The nature of MI is such that the EU can best respond through“deterrence by punishment.Using the four profiles,it should therefore prepare a toolbox for ratcheting up the costs.But if the EU responds to MI by creating fortress Europe,it will only play into the hands of its rivals.It should adopt a light-touch and cooperative response,especially when dealing with weak states.Another reason