即将到来的风暴 乌克兰对现代战争升级的见解

BENJAMIN JENSEN AND ADRIAN BOGART|1MAY 2022THE COMING STORMInsights from Ukraine about Escalation in Modern WarBenjamin Jensen and Adrian BogartIN THE FUTURE There will be more crises like Ukraine that pull in great powers,spark escalation risks based on fear and uncertainty,and test the viability of integrated deterrence.The longer a conflict such as Ukraine lasts,the less likely it will be confined to one state.The national security community will need to develop tools and techniques for assessing competition,escalation tendencies,and risk attitudes among foreign leaders that combine old concepts from political psychology with new capabilities afforded by data science and natural language processing.Based on three crisis simulations held in late March 2022 with think tank fellows,military planners,and congressional staffers,The North Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO)will likely struggle to address escalation vectors almost certain to push the current war in Ukraine beyond the countrys borders.This paper captures key insights from across these simulations based on two triggering events:(1)a Russian surgical strike on a NATO logistics hub used to provide weapons to Ukraine in sout