未能阻止俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争 误解的作用

NO.33 APRIL 2022 Introduction Failing to Deter Russias War against Ukraine:The Role of Misperceptions Dumitru Minzarari Despite what looked like tremendous efforts by the West to deter Russias aggression against Ukraine,the Kremlin started a full-scale military invasion across the Ukrainian border from the north,east,and south.Clarifying why these deterrence efforts did not work as expected could provide useful insights for building more effective strat-egies to stop Russias aggression.It would also allow for adjusting future policies of deterrence against Russia.The EU and NATO should consider their misperceptions about Russia that undermined their ability to politically and militarily discourage Russias aggression.They also should consider what actions have fuelled Russias mis-perceptions about the West and emboldened the Kremlin to launch its military invasion of Ukraine.One of the most underexplored dimensions of Russias military aggression against Ukraine is the failure of the West the US and the EU to deter it.Understanding this,nevertheless,is of paramount impor-tance for a score of reasons.The Wests per-ceptions and consequent actions towards Russia seem to continue to rel