莫斯科的长期战争 100天冲突后俄罗斯的政治盘算

CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIESwww.osw.waw.plOSW CommentaryThe views expressed by the authors of the papers do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Polish authorities.EDITORS:Adam Eberhardt,Katarzyna Kazimierska,Szymon SztykTRANSLATION:OSWCO-OPERATION:Jim ToddDTP:Zofia KonarskaCentre for Eastern Studiesul.Koszykowa 6a,00-564 Warsaw,Polandtel.:(+48)22 525 80 00,infoosw.waw.pl www.osw.waw.plMoscows long war:Russias political calculations after 100 days of conflictMarek MenkiszakAlthough 100 days have passed since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine,Moscow has not achieved even the hypothetical minimum objective of the operation:the capture ofthe entire Donbas.The fierce Ukrainian resistance and Western support for Kyiv mean that,despite the concentration of forces in selected sections,the Russian armys progress is slow,and being paid for with high losses.However,the Kremlin has still not decided on a serious escalation of the conflict,whether by declaring general mobilisation,using weapons of mass destruction,or moving the conflict beyond Ukraines borders.These scenarios,although they cannot be completely ruled out,seem unlikely today.Rather,Russia is limiting(albeit probably t