乌克兰冲突对非洲粮食安全的长期影响

1 Lacina Balma,Tobias Heidland,Sebastian Jvervall,Hendrik Mahlkow,Adamon N.Mukasa and Andinet Woldemichael KIEL POLICY BRIEF Long-Run Impacts of the Conflict in Ukraine on Food Security in Africa UKRAINE SPECIAL NO.1 MarchMarch 20202 22 2 Russias invasion of Ukraine threatens global grain supplies due to reduced production,exports,and increased trade costs.This policy brief investigates the possible long-term consequences of the conflict on food security in African countries.While the overall share of Africas trade with Ukraine and Russia is small,the concentration of imports in products such as wheat,other grains and fertilizer is critical to food security.We use a long-run general equilibrium trade model to study three scenarios that may evolve as a consequence of the conflict:1)Heavily reduced Ukrainian productivity in wheat and other grains,2)Rising trade costs with Ukraine and Russia due to disrupted trade routes in the Black Sea and sanctions,and 3)A hypothetical ban on Russian grain export.The model simulations show that the conflict will severely compromise food security in some African countries.We document important cross-country heterogeneity in the severity of impacts.