[德国基尔]乌克兰战争和西方制裁——德国公司有多脆弱？[2022]

1 HolgerGrg,AnnaJacobs,andSaskiaMeuchelbckKIELPOLICY BRIEF June2022June2022 War in Ukraine and Western sanctions How vulnerable are German firms?Kiel Institute for the World Economy We analyse a novel firm-level dataset for Germany to investigate the involvement of Germanfirms in the Russian and Ukrainian market as well as the impact of the annexation of Crimeaand the associated sanctions in 2014.The number of firms exporting to Russia dropped substantially since the annexation ofCrimea,to around 18 thousand in 2018.Moreover,Russia became a substantially lessimportant export destination for those firms still serving the market.Imports from Russia are dominated by a few large firms highly dependent on the Russianmarket.They include mostly energy products and raw materials.In contrast,Germanexporters are not very dependent on Russia,with only few small firms highly specialised inthe country.The number of firms trading with Ukraine is substantially smaller than that for Russia.However,trade with Ukraine has become more important for German firms,despite sometemporary turmoils related to the Russian annexation of Crimea.Yet,only few firms arehighly specialised in Ukraine.As an importa