台湾的赌博 两岸和解及其对美国政策的影响[20091210].pdf

p o l i c y b r i e fTaiwans Gamble:The Cross-Strait Rapprochement and its Implications for U.S.PolicyD e c e m b e r 2 0 0 9by Abraham m.Denmark and richard fontaineWhen president obama visited beijing in November 2009,he highlighted several issues of mutual interest and concern:climate change,the global economic crisis,Afghanistan,pakistan,iran,and North Korea.While the American media closely scrutinized the presidents trip,they missed the proverbial“dog that didnt bark.”in a remarkable change from past presidential visits,Taiwan was not a major issue of contention.in official statements,both sides reiterated rather perfunctorily their commitment to the status quo and moved on to more pressing matters.This change can be credited directly to the remarkable cross-Strait rapprochement that has occurred in the 18 months since President Ma Ying-jeou took office and launched a dramatic reorientation of Taiwans policy toward mainland China.1 President Mas government has aggressively pursued rapprochement with Beijing and the mainland has reacted favorably.The changes in policy thus far and the future trajectory of rela-tions between Taipei and Beijing hold the potential to fundamentally