在刀刃上 也门的动荡和对美国利益的威胁[20091120].pdf

p o l i c y b r i e fOn the Knifes Edge:Yemens Instability and the Threat to American InterestsN o v e m b e r 2 0 0 9by Andrew m.exum and richard fontaineFacing an active insurgency in the north,a separatist movement in the south,and a domestic al-Qaeda presence,yemen rests today on the knifes edge.The consequences of instability in Yemen reach far beyond this troubled land,and pose serious challenges to vital U.S.interests.A destabilized Arabian peninsula would shatter regional security,disrupt trade routes,and obstruct access to fossil fuels.With Saudi Arabia already at war in northern yemen and the country increasingly at risk of becoming a haven for transnational terrorists,the United States must actively work to avoid the potentially dire consequences of a failing state there.Americans will not welcome this news.Eight years after the September 11 attacks,and weary of stabi-lization efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan,Americans have little appetite for devoting more resources or attention to emerging threats in faraway lands.Yet the deteriorating situation in Yemen demands immediate U.S.attention.Such attention should not,however,take the form of large scale military operations as