QDDR展望未来 重新调整国务院政策规划的重点.pdf

Eye to the Future Refocusing State Department Policy PlanningA u g u s t 2 0 1 0By Richard Fontaine and Brian M.BurtonP o l i c y B R i e FThese reflections by two directors of the Policy Planning staff capture an enduring frustration with the State Departments difficulty in plan-ning foreign policy.Most would agree that the Department does not“do”planning at least not in the same fashion as does the Pentagon,which consistently develops plans for an array of future scenarios and contingencies,or the private sector,in which firms often maintain a formal strategic planning process.Yet since 1947,the State Department has retained a full-time Policy Planning staff(S/P),regularly led by renowned foreign policy thinkers and operators.Charged with looking beyond the immediate time horizon and engaging in high-level thinking about future policy directions,the staff would seem to be posi-tioned to play an important and even critical role.Current and former foreign policy officials gener-ally agree that proper policy planning is necessary to the making of American foreign policy.If it is true that,as the National Intelligence Council(NIC)concluded,“the international system as constructed fol