在不断变化的中东美国影响力的机会[20140425].pdf

A P R I L 2 0 1 4 P O L I C Y B R I E FOpportunities for American Influence in a Changing Middle EastA Response to the DeclinistsBy Dafna Hochman RandIs American Influence in the Middle East and North Africa Declining?For decades,analysts of U.S.foreign policy have debated whether American influence around the world is declining.The most recent manifestation of this perennial discussion revolves around the ques-tion of American influence in the Middle East and North Africa(MENA)in the wake of the 2011 Arab uprisings.1 Even earlier,as the U.S.military ended its seven-year presence in Iraq,some questioned why this presence could not stanch Iraqi civil and sectarian strife.The perception of Americas declining influence has deepened since the hopeful early months of the 2011 Arab uprisings gave way to the violent transitions that have ensued.With the United States facing narrowing policy options in Syria,a counterrevolution in Egypt and political paralysis from Libya to Bahrain,it is understand-able why some have concluded that Washington may be less effective in its efforts to advance U.S.interests in the region.2As Deputy Secretary of State William J.Burns recently noted,the region b