隔离倒计时 为什么美国领导人可以跳下财政悬崖[20121108].pdf

N O V E M B E R 2 0 1 2 P O L I C Y B R I E FCountdown to SequestrationWhy American Leaders Could Jump Off the Fiscal Cliff By David W.Barno,Nora Bensahel,Joel Smith and Jacob StokesThere is a strong possibility that sequestration will take effect on January 2,2013.While in principle Congress and the president both would like to avoid sequestration,hardball politics in Washington could well dictate a different result.In fact,the president and some members of both parties in Congress could realize political benefits if the nation were to go off the fiscal cliff.They could also agree to a temporary deal that delays sequestration cuts and tax increases for several months to provide more time for the newly-elected Congress to craft a comprehensive agreement on taxes and spending(a“grand bargain”).But the prospects for a delay depend more on political calculations than on the extent of bipartisan support for avoiding the consequences of going off the cliff.In any scenario,the fate of sequestration depends on prospects for a broader resolution of the fiscal cliff,where the total dollars at stake are more than nine times larger than the defense sequestration cuts.The elections did not cha