CNAS政策简报-阿富汗2011 三种场景[20091020].pdf

Afghanistan 2011:Three ScenariosO C T O B E R 2 0 0 9By Andrew M.Exum,CNAS Fellowp O l i C y B R i E fOn March 27,2009,the Obama administration released its new policy and strategic goals for Afghanistan amidst much fanfare.Just six months later,though,the administration has mounted yet another review of U.S.policy and strategy the fifth high-level review by the U.S.government in the past 12 months.Two things happened to spur this review.First,the contested Afghan elections were,in many ways,a worst-case scenario for U.S.and other NATO policy-makers.Prior to the elections,the scenario most feared by the international community was one in which Karzai was re-elected by a thin margin amid widespread irregularities and allegations of corruption.That is exactly what happened,leading a much-respected U.S.deputy to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan(UNAMA)to depart acrimoniously after witnessing what he per-ceived to be a U.N.cover-up of ballot box-stuffing and election-rigging.The U.N.-backed Electoral Complaints Commission has now disqualified ballots 210 polling stations,ensuring a run-off election.Second,the grim strategic assessment presented by Gen.Stanley McChrys