推进美国对南中国海政策的夏季日历[20140521].pdf

M A Y 2 0 1 4By Ely RatnerA G E N D AA Summer Calendar for Advancing U.S.Policy toward the South China Sea2014Its time to breathe new life into U.S.policy in the South China Sea.Despite important initiatives by the Obama administration to strengthen bilateral security ties,build partner capacity and enhance multilateral cooperation,the regions territorial and maritime disputes continue to engender dangerous crises.The potential for armed conflict will only grow larger in the absence of creative and decisive U.S.leadership.MAYWHO:Secretary HagelWHAT:Propose a multilateral“common operating picture”for the South China SeaWHEN:Shangri-La DialogueWHERE:Singapore JULYWHO:Deputy Secretary BurnsWHAT:Contest Chinese administration of Scarborough ReefWHEN:Strategic Security DialogueWHERE:Beijing,ChinaJUNEWHO:President ObamaWHAT:Declare an official consensus among like-minded states on the legitimacy of managing maritime disputes in the South China Sea through international arbitrationWHEN:G-7 SummitWHERE:Brussels,BelgiumAUGUSTWHO:Secretary KerryWHAT:Propose the“early harvest”of specific components of the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct for the South China SeaWHEN:ASEAN Regional ForumWHERE:Naypyi