阿萨德遭到攻击 叙利亚未来的五种情景[20120910].pdf

S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 2 P O L I C Y B R I E FAsad Under FireFive Scenarios for the Future of SyriaBy Melissa G.DaltonThe brutal conflict now underway in Syria jeopardizes key strategic interests of the United States,but leaves Washington with few attractive options to protect them and little leverage over the future trajectory of the country.Given these challenges,the United States should pursue a strategy that mitigates both the short-and long-term risks to its interests.Other U.S.policies will rightly focus on condemning the atrocities of the Syrian regime and alleviating the humanitarian suffering of the Syrian people.This policy brief focuses on threats to U.S.security interests and how they might evolve under five different scenarios for the future of Syria:President Bashar al-Asad is killed,followed by a period of conflict An opposition-led government takes power through a managed transition The opposition deposes Asad violently and takes control of Syria Asad retains power after an extended civil war Syria disintegrates along sectarian or religious linesEighteen months ago,the best possible result for Syria involved the political opposition convincing Asad to step down,cul