拐点 持久外交解决伊朗核挑战的要求[20131115].pdf

N O V E M B E R 2 0 1 3 P O L I C Y B R I E FInflection PointRequirements for an Enduring Diplomatic Solution to the Iranian Nuclear ChallengeBy Colin H.KahlThe long-simmering nuclear crisis with Iran is approaching a critical inflection point.The election of Hassan Rouhani,a moderate former nuclear negotiator,as Irans new president has re-energized diplomacy between Iran and the P5+1(the United States,Britain,China,France,Germany,and Russia).Sanctions have taken a heavy toll on the Iranian economy,and Rouhani believes he has a popular mandate and sufficient latitude from Irans Supreme Leader,Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,to reach an accommodation with the international community in exchange for lessening the pressure.The prospects for a comprehensive agreement to peacefully resolve the nuclear impasse have never been higher.The most recent round of talks between Iran and the P5+1,held in Geneva,concluded on November 10.The negotiations were serious and sustained,including sev-eral hours of intensive bilateral discussions between the United States and Iran.Differences between the parties have been narrowed,bringing the broad contours of an interim nuclear agreement into view.Nevertheless,