报告预览-战场上的机器人第二部分 即将到来的蜂群[20140829].pdf

During the Cold War,faced with the reality of a significant numerical advantage by the Soviet Union,the United States focused on developing qualitatively superior weapons.A side effect of this approach,however,has been more complex weapon systems with ever-rising costs and,as a result,even further diminishing numbers of U.S.systems.1In 1984,Norm Augustine observed as one of“Augustines Laws”that the cost of military aircraft was growing exponentially,while the defense budget was only growing linearly.He humorously noted:In the year 2054,the entire defense budget will purchase just one tactical aircraft.This aircraft will have to be shared by the Air Force and Navy 3 days each per week except for leap year,when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day.2Of course,such a trend becomes a problem long before the Department of Defense gets down to only one aircraft.That time is now.The Coming Swarm:The Quality of QuantityBy Paul Scharre and James Marshall report preview-robotics on the battlefield part ii:the coming swarmComing this Fall“Robotics on the Battlefield Part II:The Coming Swarm”will explore how the robotics revolution will enable new ways of bringing mass bac