防守、叛逃还是沙漠？[20150108].pdf

J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 5 P O L I C Y B R I E FDefend,Defect,or Desert?:The Future of the Afghan Security Forces The Afghan National Security Forces(ANSF)are soon to become the center of gravity for security in Afghanistan.In September 2014,U.S.and Afghan leaders signed a Bilateral Security Agreement(BSA)and have since announced that approximately 10,800 U.S.service members will remain in Afghanistan as the formal portion of the international combat mission ends.2 The size of the U.S.support mission in Afghanistan is scheduled to decrease even further.Earlier this year,President Obama stated that the United States would drawdown to a“normal embassy presence”by the end of 2016.3 In the coming months,Afghanistan will depend on increasingly independent Afghan security forces to fight a tough insurgencyone that is perhaps even as strong as it was four years ago during the height of U.S.and coalition operations.4In order to achieve its strategic goal to deny safe haven to Al-Qaeda and its affiliates,the United States must continue to provide support to the ANSF.To be sure,Afghanistan is only one part of a larger U.S.mission to disrupt and destroy the Al-Qaeda network.Both the 2010 National