绘制亚洲大趋势的轮廓[20140207].pdf

f e b r u a r y 2 0 1 4 P o l i c y b r i e fCharting the Contours of Asias Megatrendsby alexander SullivanOver the seven decades since the end of World War II in the Asia-Pacific region,United States leadership in concert with close allies and partners has deterred major power conflict.This relative peace,especially over the past forty years,has allowed the region to achieve rapid gains in prosperity and lift millions from poverty.That economic miracle is precipitating the long-term move of economic and political gravity to Asia.But the re-emergence of major Asian powers onto the regional and global stage,along with other consequences of global economic and technological development,are altering key facets of the postwar security environment.This paper proposes to describe seven megatrends that are shaping Asia-Pacific security,as well as a forecast of how those trends could affect regional players choices on military modernization.I close with a brief discussion of tradeoffs and implications facing policymakers.Bracketing military modernization out from other major trends in Asia-Pacific security is at some level specious,as changes in the military balance of power are also input