俄罗斯战争对欧洲影响的中国因素

German Council on Foreign RelationsANALYSISNo.3March 2022The China Factor in Russias WarImplications for EuropeIn Russias war against Ukraine,the fronts are clear:The European Union supports Ukraine;China stands by Russia.While the conflict is exacerbating long-term regulatory,geopolitical,and economic divergences between the EU and China,their short-term priorities overlap.Both are striving for a negotiated solution.If the European Union deals with China,it must defend its own values and inter-ests,mind its long-term room for maneuver,and learn to defuse tensions.This DGAP Analysis,which is based on five scenarios,shows how.Although neither the outbreak of the war nor its prolongation is in Chinas interest,a defeat for Russia is a horror scenario that Chinese leadership wants to avoid.China currently standing with Putin does not mean that its sup-port is absolute.Chinas position on Russia will alter depending on the situation in Ukraine,which could develop along at least five scenarios:a short war,a long war,NATOs decisive entry,a negotiated settlement,and a Russian coup.Central to Chinas calculus in each scenario is its assessment of how the war affects its long-term regulatory,g