乌克兰战争对欧盟农业未来辩论的影响

NO.75(1992),10 MAY 2022 PISM BULLETIN Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Debate on the Future of Agriculture in the EU Melchior Szczepanik Distortions of trade related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine have invigorated the debate around the transformation of EU agriculture.Exports from Russia and Ukraine constitute 34%of the world trade in wheat and 77%of the trade in sunflower oil.Russia and Belarus have a 37%share of the market for fertilisers based on potash.In addition,Russia produces around 15%of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilisers sold in the world.A drop in imports from these countries provoked by the fighting and sanctions does not endanger the availability of food in the EU,but it deepens a trend noticeable already before the war of price increases of key inputs in the agri-food sectorgas,oil,fertilisers,and grains(see table below).This could translate into lower revenues for farmers and higher food prices.Cereal shortfalls in developing countries,especially in Africa and the Middle East,which are more dependent on Russian and Ukrainian supplies could also have serious consequences for the Union.Key Arguments in the Debate.COPA-COGECA,an organisation representing the la