这是分裂而不是两极化理解乌克兰入侵后的世界秩序

Key Issues Allusions of a new bipolarity(Cold War 2.0)are mistaken.Rather a new order,best described as fuzzy bifurcation is developing.Similarly mistaken are claims about the“end of globalisation”.Supply chains,FDI,financial and digital services are not for decoupling.In contrast to the Cold War,the logics of security and international economics are no longer aligned.Rather they are in direct tension.Geo-politics“may be back.”But it does not axiomatically trump global economics.This tension affords states a flexibility of action greater than during the Cold War.States may bandwagon with the USA on security but hedge on other policy issues such as trade or environment.The EU reflects this ambivalence.Continued reliance on the USA for security should be contrasted with hedging on trade and climate and even significant autonomy on digitalisation.IntroductionChanges in world order require policy adaptation on the part of governments.The pre-requisite for good policy adaptation is an accurate reading of the nature and magnitude of that change.This is easier said than done.While there are always competing interpretations of change,the temptation to proclaim an irreversible shift in the