CSBA_20100402_理解核恐怖主义的威胁.pdf

BackgrounderThinking Smarter About DefenseApril 2010Understanding the threat of nUclear terrorismBy Evan Braden MontgomeryOver the past several years,the prospect of a terrorist group armed with a nuclear weapon has frequently been cited as a genuine and overriding threat to the security of the United States.Moreover,press reports indicate that the forthcoming Nuclear posture review will make the goal of countering nuclear terrorism“equal to the traditional mission of deterring a strike by major powers or emerging nuclear adversaries.”1 Although the likelihood of a nuclear terrorist attack may be relatively low,the consequences of such an attack would obviously be enormous.There is,therefore,widespread agreement regarding the severity of this threat.Despite this consensus,a number of important questions remain open to debate:How real is the risk that a terrorist group could acquire or construct a functional nuclear device,and how might it attempt to do so?Which group poses the greatest threat in this regard,how has that threat changed over time,and is it currently growing or abating?What existing and prospective measures will prove most effective in preventing terrorists from obtai