伊朗及其伙伴和有效力量的平衡

IRAN,ITS PARTNERS,AND THEBALANCE OF EFFECTIVE FORCEJOHN RAINEMARCH 18,2020COMMENTARYWhat is the current balance of power in the Middle East?In conventional terms it rests overwhelmingly with the Westand its allies,whose combined arsenals dwarf those of Iran and its partners.But the more subtle“balance of effectiveforce”in other words,those capabilities which are most readily deployable and deliver greatest military and politicaladvantage in an actual conflict has tipped over the last five years decisively toward Iran.Tehran possesses a capabilitywhich its adversaries do not:the capability to fight through indigenous third parties.From Yemen to Iraq and through Syria to Lebanon,Irans use of local partners has proved consistently effective.Although it has risked nationalist backlash at times,Tehrans strategy has amplified its power throughout the region.Iran does not and cannot,absent a nuclear capability,threaten its adversaries through superior firepower.But it has,through its third-party capability,tilted the regional balance of effective force in its favor.In response to Irans strategy,the West and its regional partners should learn to develop and deploy a capability to fightthro