机器学习遇上战争终结：利用人工智能探索乌克兰的和平前景

FEBRUARY 2025 Machine Learning Meets War TerminationUsing AI to Explore Peace Scenarios in Ukraine By Ian Reynolds and Benjamin Jensen IntroductionTalks to end the war in Ukraine are in motion.As the Trump administration seeks to keep its promise to end the war in Ukraine,negotiators must consider long-standing research on war termination and peace negotiations.Despite calls for a swift ceasefire,this body of work shows that peace talks tend to take longer than initially anticipated.War is an extension of politics,and negotiations are shaped by a broad range of factors beyond simply tallying battlefield successes or assessing when combatants will exhaust their resources.A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies(CSIS),drawing on data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program(UCDP),found that 60 percent of all wars conclude through some form of compromise.While wars can end in various ways,a negotiated settlement remains a distinct option for Ukraine.Therefore,identifying the factors that influence the complex process of war termination is essential for understanding how negotiations between the United States,Russia,Ukraine,other key states in Europe,and the broad